A simulation model for soccer championships

Ruud H. Koning, M.P. Koolhaas, G. Renes, G. Ridder

Research output: Working paperAcademic

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In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like 'which team had a lucky draw?' or 'what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?'. Input to the model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well. Keywords: Soccer, Poisson models, simulation
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages13
Publication statusPublished - 2001

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