Abstract
In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like 'which team had a lucky draw?' or 'what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?'. Input to the model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.
Keywords: Soccer, Poisson models, simulation
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Publication status | Published - 2003 |