Additional value of geriatric parameters to Quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment score for predicting clinical deterioration in older emergency department patients with a suspected infection: post-hoc analysis of a prospective observational study

AIM: To investigate the additional value of geriatric parameters such as physical impairment to the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) tool for predicting clinical deterioration in older ED patients with a suspected infection and to validate the final prediction model.

METHODS: Post-hoc multivariable regression analysis from a prospective observational cohort study of adult patients visiting the ED of a university hospital to develop a prediction model. External validation of the prediction model was performed using the prospective data-biobank Acutelines.

RESULTS: In older patients, qSOFA (OR 1.47 (95% CI 1.12-1.95)) and physical impairment (OR 1.84 (95% CI 1.20-2.82)) were independently associated with clinical deterioration within 72 hours. This resulted in a prediction model with an area under the curve of 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.68) in the derivation cohort, and of 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.68) in the validation cohort. Calibration of the model was poor.

CONCLUSION: In older ED patients with a suspected infection, not only disease severity scores, but also presence of physical impairment is independently associated with clinical deterioration.