Agent-Based Modeling of a Thermal Energy Transition in the Built Environment

Graciela-del-Carmen Nava-Guerrero*, Gijsbert Korevaar, Helle Hvid Hansen, Zofia Lukszo

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)


To reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, an energy transition
is taking place in the European Union. Achieving these targets requires changes in the heating and
cooling sector (H&C). Designing and implementing this energy transition is not trivial, as technology,
actors, and institutions interact in complex ways. We provide an illustrative example of the
development and use of an agent-based model (ABM) for thermal energy transitions in the built
environment, from the perspective of sociotechnical systems (STS) and complex adaptive systems
(CAS). In our illustrative example, we studied the transition of a simplified residential neighborhood
to heating without natural gas. We used the ABM to explore socioeconomic conditions that could
support the neighborhoods’ transition over 20 years while meeting the neighborhoods’ heat demand.
Our illustrative example showed that through the use of STS, CAS, and an ABM, we can account for
technology, actors, institutions, and their interactions while designing for thermal energy transitions
in the built environment.
Original languageEnglish
Article number856
Number of pages25
Publication statusPublished - Mar-2019
Externally publishedYes

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