Analysing the complex techno-economic challenges of the EU power sector's evolving role in climate-neutrality

The EU Green Deal mandates a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050, with stricter targets potentially required
under global effort-sharing frameworks. While EU energy consumption is projected
to decline by 22% by 2050, electricity demand could rise by 60%-100%,
necessitating a net-zero or net-negative emissions power sector. This transition
presents four key challenges: scaling carbon removal and negative emissions
technologies, accounting for lifecycle GHG emissions, managing increased electricity
demand from sector coupling, and aligning EU-wide and member-state policies.
Current energy system models are insufficient to address these challenges
comprehensively, highlighting the need for new modeling frameworks.
To address these knowledge gaps, the objective of this research is to develop
strategic approaches for the EU to tackle the complex techno-economic challenges
associated with the increasing role of the power sector in achieving climate neutrality
by 2050. This goes beyond renewable energy adoption while ensuring the adequacy
and resilience of its power system. Using a techno-economic approach with energy
system optimization models (Plexos, IESA-Opt, and JRC-EU-TIMES), the study
addresses four research questions: (1) cost-effective, reliable power system designs
considering lifecycle GHG emissions and CO₂ removal; (2) sector coupling's role in
climate neutrality and supportive power system designs; (3) policy’s role compared
to cost-optimized solutions; and (4) integrated energy system modeling frameworks.
Spanning 2020-2050, this research provides insights into designing a resilient,
climate-neutral EU power system.