Analyzing the Simonshaven Case With and Without Probabilities

Bart Verheij*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)
56 Downloads (Pure)


This paper is one in a series of rational analyses of the Dutch Simonshaven case, each using a different theoretical perspective. The theoretical perspectives discussed in the literature typically use arguments, scenarios, and probabilities, in various combinations. The theoretical perspective on evidential reasoning used in this paper has been designed to connect arguments, scenarios, and probabilities in a single formal modeling approach, in an attempt to investigate bridges between qualitative and quantitative analytic styles. The theoretical perspective uses the recently proposed logical formalism of case models, where cases represent possible combinations of evidence and events, ordered by an ordering relation. In the context of evidential reasoning, the ordering relation can be represented by a probability function. As an ordering relation is qualitative in nature, the theoretical perspective is in a formally precise sense simultaneously with and without probabilities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1175-1199
Number of pages25
JournalTopics in Cognitive Science
Issue number4
Early online date25-Jul-2019
Publication statusPublished - Oct-2020


  • Evidential reasoning
  • Probabilistic models
  • Argumentation models
  • Narrative models
  • Case analysis
  • Rational proof
  • Criminal law

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