TY - JOUR
T1 - Cognitive reactivity compared to other risk factors in the prediction of depressive episodes over two and nine years
T2 - a longitudinal cohort study
AU - Solis, Ericka C.
AU - Carlier, Ingrid V.E.
AU - Schoevers, Robert A.
AU - Penninx, Brenda W.J.H.
AU - van Hemert, Albert M.
AU - van der Does, A. J.Willem
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2025/3/16
Y1 - 2025/3/16
N2 - Objective: Cognitive Reactivity (CR) is the (re-)activation of negative cognitions by dysphoric mood. We examined whether CR predicts depressive episodes across 2 and 9 years, beyond subclinical depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and previous depressive episodes.Methods: Participants (N = 1,734) from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) were never-depressed or remitted-depressed for ≥1 month prior to baseline. We examined 2-year and 9-year predictions using Cox’s survival analysis and logistic regression, respectively. Two-year coefficient-based weight-points were calculated and evaluated using ROC analysis.Results: CR was a statistically-significant predictor of two-year depressive episodes, with an odds ratio of 1.04, 95% CI (1.02–1.06), and over nine years, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.01, 95% CI (1.01–1.02). The influence of CR and subclinical depressive symptoms decreased as the number of episodes increased, especially in ≥ 3 past episodes. Calculated weight-points correctly predicted 33.5% of participants who developed 2-year depression, compared to a 17.8% base rate (sensitivity =.81, specificity =.66).Conclusions: CR is a moderately strong predictor of depressive episodes across 2 and 9 years. In participants with ≥ 3 prior episodes, depression history is such a strong predictor that a ceiling effect occurs, removing any added value of other predictors.
AB - Objective: Cognitive Reactivity (CR) is the (re-)activation of negative cognitions by dysphoric mood. We examined whether CR predicts depressive episodes across 2 and 9 years, beyond subclinical depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and previous depressive episodes.Methods: Participants (N = 1,734) from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) were never-depressed or remitted-depressed for ≥1 month prior to baseline. We examined 2-year and 9-year predictions using Cox’s survival analysis and logistic regression, respectively. Two-year coefficient-based weight-points were calculated and evaluated using ROC analysis.Results: CR was a statistically-significant predictor of two-year depressive episodes, with an odds ratio of 1.04, 95% CI (1.02–1.06), and over nine years, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.01, 95% CI (1.01–1.02). The influence of CR and subclinical depressive symptoms decreased as the number of episodes increased, especially in ≥ 3 past episodes. Calculated weight-points correctly predicted 33.5% of participants who developed 2-year depression, compared to a 17.8% base rate (sensitivity =.81, specificity =.66).Conclusions: CR is a moderately strong predictor of depressive episodes across 2 and 9 years. In participants with ≥ 3 prior episodes, depression history is such a strong predictor that a ceiling effect occurs, removing any added value of other predictors.
KW - cognitive vulnerability
KW - depression onset
KW - longitudinal study
KW - recurrent depression
KW - risk factors
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105000340732
U2 - 10.1080/13651501.2025.2476509
DO - 10.1080/13651501.2025.2476509
M3 - Article
C2 - 40089852
AN - SCOPUS:105000340732
SN - 1365-1501
VL - 29
SP - 32
EP - 40
JO - International Journal of Psychiatry in Clinical Practice
JF - International Journal of Psychiatry in Clinical Practice
IS - 1
ER -