TY - JOUR
T1 - Critical Slowing Down in Momentary Affect as Early Warning Signal of Impending Transitions in Depression
AU - Smit, Arnout C.
AU - Helmich, Marieke A.
AU - Bringmann, Laura F.
AU - Oldehinkel, Albertine J.
AU - Wichers, Marieke
AU - Snippe, Evelien
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.
PY - 2025
Y1 - 2025
N2 - Based on dynamical-systems theory, in the current study, we aimed to investigate if recurrence of depression is systematically preceded by within-persons early warning signals (EWSs) in positive and negative affect. Ecological momentary assessments were collected five times a day for a period of 4 months (averaging 524 assessments per individual) from 37 formerly depressed individuals discontinuing antidepressant medication. EWSs (increases in window autocorrelation and variance) preceded recurrence of depression in 32.9% of the participants across robustness checks. Compared with participants that remained in remission, participants with a recurrence showed significantly more positive trends in the variance but not in autocorrelation, and the average number of significant EWSs was more than 3 times larger across tested affect variables. Although the results provide the first systematic evidence that EWSs occur more often before the recurrence of depression, the low sensitivity of EWSs poses a substantial challenge for clinical applications.
AB - Based on dynamical-systems theory, in the current study, we aimed to investigate if recurrence of depression is systematically preceded by within-persons early warning signals (EWSs) in positive and negative affect. Ecological momentary assessments were collected five times a day for a period of 4 months (averaging 524 assessments per individual) from 37 formerly depressed individuals discontinuing antidepressant medication. EWSs (increases in window autocorrelation and variance) preceded recurrence of depression in 32.9% of the participants across robustness checks. Compared with participants that remained in remission, participants with a recurrence showed significantly more positive trends in the variance but not in autocorrelation, and the average number of significant EWSs was more than 3 times larger across tested affect variables. Although the results provide the first systematic evidence that EWSs occur more often before the recurrence of depression, the low sensitivity of EWSs poses a substantial challenge for clinical applications.
KW - critical slowing down
KW - critical transitions
KW - depression
KW - dynamical-systems theory
KW - early warning signals
KW - experience-sampling methodology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85219563902&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/21677026241305136
DO - 10.1177/21677026241305136
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85219563902
SN - 2167-7026
JO - Clinical Psychological Science
JF - Clinical Psychological Science
ER -