Decoupling and Decomposition of Emissions and Economic Growth Based on Interprovincial Embodied Carbon Flow in China

Breaking the strong connection between economic growth and carbon emissions is crucial for China to achieve high-quality, sustainable development. Neglecting the carbon emissions embedded in interregional trade risks inflating the perceived progress in decoupling, however, as emissions are often shifted between regions through trade. This research evaluates the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth, considering the embodied carbon flow, and decomposes its factors across thirty Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2017. We found that China’s carbon emissions surged from 3,641.47 Mt to 7,828.88 Mt during the study period, growing at an annual average rate of 5.76 percent. There was a noticeable shift in embodied carbon flow from less affluent or resource-intensive provinces to more developed areas. Sectoral analysis indicated that these developed provinces outsourced their carbon emissions, associated with low-value-added raw materials and intermediate goods, to less developed provinces to achieve emissions reductions. Decoupling analysis indicated that the majority of provinces consistently showed weak decoupling, but some transitioned to strong decoupling. By 2017, twelve provinces achieved production-based decoupling, thirteen reached consumption-based decoupling, and seven regions, including Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangdong, realized “double decoupling.” Conversely, areas like Zhejiang and Sichuan attained production-based decoupling, but their consumption-based emissions continued to rise. Structural decomposition analysis indicated that optimizing the production structure and curbing energy-intensive consumption emerge as primary factors in enhancing the decoupling status across various regions. Although international trade is not considered, these results still highlight the importance of accounting for embodied carbon flows in interregional trade when assessing decoupling targets. This provides a theoretical basis for the development of differentiated decoupling policies.