Detecting early warning signals of injuries and health problems in elite youth soccer players

Niklas Neumann*, Jur Brauers, Nico W. Van Yperen, Fred Hasselman, Ruud den Hartigh

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractAcademic

Abstract

Injuries and health problems of athletes may appear abruptly and are often unexpected. However, hypotheses from complex systems theory suggest that these events can be preceded by so-called early warning signals (EWSs). We tested whether injuries and health problems can be anticipated with a specific type of EWS, that is critical fluctuations. Over two competitive seasons, we collected psychological and physiological self-reports (i.e., self-efficacy, motivation, mood, rating of own performance, enjoyment, and recovery) and data from heart rate sensors on every training and match day from 14 elite youth soccer players (16-20 years). In addition, we recorded time-loss injuries and players filled in the Sports Trauma Research Center Questionnaire on Health Problems (OSTRC-H2) once a week. We calculated the dynamic complexity (DC) of the self-reports and sensor data to test for increased critical fluctuations before the onset of injuries and health problems. Results showed that players experienced 5.6 injuries and 8.4 health problems on average (range = 1-18 and range = 2-26, respectively). 55% and 37% of those players revealed a peak in DC up to five days before injuries and health problems, respectively (SD = 39% and SD = 25%, Min = 0% and Min = 0%, Max = 100%, and Max = 83%). These results suggest that critical fluctuations may be a promising EWS for real-time anticipation of injuries and health problems in sports practice. Future research should test for the robustness of these results within and between individuals. Finally, finding out how warning signals can be communicated to soccer players and staff is an important avenue for practice. Funding source: ZonMw (Dutch organization for health research and innovation).
Original languageEnglish
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May-2023
EventNASPSPA - Toronto, Toronto, Canada
Duration: 1-Jun-20233-Jun-2023
https://www.naspspa.com/2023-annual-conference/

Conference

ConferenceNASPSPA
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityToronto
Period01/06/202303/06/2023
Internet address

Keywords

  • time series analysis
  • soccer
  • football
  • Dynamical system
  • Complexity

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