TY - CONF
T1 - Detecting early warning signals of injuries and health problems in elite youth soccer players
AU - Neumann, Niklas
AU - Brauers, Jur
AU - Van Yperen, Nico W.
AU - Hasselman, Fred
AU - den Hartigh, Ruud
PY - 2023/5
Y1 - 2023/5
N2 - Injuries and health problems of athletes may appear abruptly and are often unexpected. However, hypotheses from complex systems theory suggest that these events can be preceded by so-called early warning signals (EWSs). We tested whether injuries and health problems can be anticipated with a specific type of EWS, that is critical fluctuations. Over two competitive seasons, we collected psychological and physiological self-reports (i.e., self-efficacy, motivation, mood, rating of own performance, enjoyment, and recovery) and data from heart rate sensors on every training and match day from 14 elite youth soccer players (16-20 years). In addition, we recorded time-loss injuries and players filled in the Sports Trauma Research Center Questionnaire on Health Problems (OSTRC-H2) once a week. We calculated the dynamic complexity (DC) of the self-reports and sensor data to test for increased critical fluctuations before the onset of injuries and health problems. Results showed that players experienced 5.6 injuries and 8.4 health problems on average (range = 1-18 and range = 2-26, respectively). 55% and 37% of those players revealed a peak in DC up to five days before injuries and health problems, respectively (SD = 39% and SD = 25%, Min = 0% and Min = 0%, Max = 100%, and Max = 83%). These results suggest that critical fluctuations may be a promising EWS for real-time anticipation of injuries and health problems in sports practice. Future research should test for the robustness of these results within and between individuals. Finally, finding out how warning signals can be communicated to soccer players and staff is an important avenue for practice. Funding source: ZonMw (Dutch organization for health research and innovation).
AB - Injuries and health problems of athletes may appear abruptly and are often unexpected. However, hypotheses from complex systems theory suggest that these events can be preceded by so-called early warning signals (EWSs). We tested whether injuries and health problems can be anticipated with a specific type of EWS, that is critical fluctuations. Over two competitive seasons, we collected psychological and physiological self-reports (i.e., self-efficacy, motivation, mood, rating of own performance, enjoyment, and recovery) and data from heart rate sensors on every training and match day from 14 elite youth soccer players (16-20 years). In addition, we recorded time-loss injuries and players filled in the Sports Trauma Research Center Questionnaire on Health Problems (OSTRC-H2) once a week. We calculated the dynamic complexity (DC) of the self-reports and sensor data to test for increased critical fluctuations before the onset of injuries and health problems. Results showed that players experienced 5.6 injuries and 8.4 health problems on average (range = 1-18 and range = 2-26, respectively). 55% and 37% of those players revealed a peak in DC up to five days before injuries and health problems, respectively (SD = 39% and SD = 25%, Min = 0% and Min = 0%, Max = 100%, and Max = 83%). These results suggest that critical fluctuations may be a promising EWS for real-time anticipation of injuries and health problems in sports practice. Future research should test for the robustness of these results within and between individuals. Finally, finding out how warning signals can be communicated to soccer players and staff is an important avenue for practice. Funding source: ZonMw (Dutch organization for health research and innovation).
KW - time series analysis
KW - soccer
KW - football
KW - Dynamical system
KW - Complexity
U2 - 10.1123/jsep.2023-0077
DO - 10.1123/jsep.2023-0077
M3 - Abstract
T2 - NASPSPA
Y2 - 1 June 2023 through 3 June 2023
ER -