TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and External Validation of a Home-based Risk Prediction Model of Natural Onset of Menopause-Teuta
AU - Kastrati, Lum
AU - Vidal, Pedro Marques
AU - Dhana, Klodian
AU - Bally, Lia
AU - Lambrinoudaki, Irene
AU - Groothof, Dion
AU - Bakker, Stephan J.L.
AU - Eisenga, Michele F.
AU - Muka, Taulant
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society.
PY - 2024/12/18
Y1 - 2024/12/18
N2 - OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors.DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study.PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause.MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistics, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances.RESULTS: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohorts, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82.CONCLUSION: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.
AB - OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors.DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study.PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause.MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistics, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances.RESULTS: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohorts, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82.CONCLUSION: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.
KW - family planning
KW - menopause
KW - prediction
KW - validation
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85213490913
U2 - 10.1210/clinem/dgae125
DO - 10.1210/clinem/dgae125
M3 - Article
C2 - 38442740
AN - SCOPUS:85213490913
SN - 1945-7197
VL - 110
SP - e109-e116
JO - The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism
JF - The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism
IS - 1
ER -