Does uncertainty affect economic growth?: an empirical analysis

Robert Lensink; Hong Bo; Elmer Sterken

Does uncertainty affect economic growth? an empirical analysis

Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research output: Working paper › Academic

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measure on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during 1970-1995. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.

Original language	English
Publisher	s.n.
Number of pages	20
Publication status	Published - 1999

Keywords

83.33 economische fluctuaties
Economische groei, Onzekerheid, Groeimodellen

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AB - This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measure on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during 1970-1995. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.

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