Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Open Science Collaboration

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

5744 Citations (Scopus)
697 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberaac4716
Number of pages8
JournalScience
Volume349
Issue number6251
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28-Aug-2015

Keywords

  • REPLICABILITY
  • REPLICATION
  • PUBLICATION
  • INCENTIVES
  • PREVALENCE
  • FALSE
  • TRUTH
  • POWER

Access to Document

Handle.net

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
    View full fingerprint

    • Data from: Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

      Aarts, A. A. (Contributor), Anderson, J. E. (Contributor), Anderson, C. J. (Contributor), Van Renswoude, D. R. (Contributor), Kleinberg, B. (Contributor), Gazarian, D. (Contributor), Garcia, S. (Contributor), Gray, J. (Contributor), Ryan, R. S. (Contributor), Donnellan, M. B. (Contributor), Prenoveau, J. M. (Contributor), Bartmess, E. (Contributor), Columbus, S. (Contributor), Olsson, C. (Contributor), Attridge, P. R. (Contributor), Motyl, M. (Contributor), Immelman, N. (Contributor), Voracek, M. (Contributor), Soderberg, C. (Contributor), Babel, M. (Contributor), Saide, A. (Contributor), Fitneva, S. A. (Contributor), Thomas, S. L. (Contributor), Rivers, A. M. (Contributor), Lassetter, B. (Contributor), Scholz, S. (Contributor), Penna, N. D. (Contributor), Wagenmakers, E.-J. (Contributor), Möschl, M. (Contributor), Hoogendoorn, G. (Contributor), Bentley, H. (Contributor), Dunn, E. W. (Contributor), Galak, J. (Contributor), Lin, S. (Contributor), Gorges, J. (Contributor), Talhelm, T. (Contributor), Bosco, F. A. (Contributor), Dobolyi, D. G. (Contributor), Velez, N. (Contributor), Attwood, A. (Contributor), Dodson, G. T. (Contributor), DeGaetano, M. A. (Contributor), Steegen, S. (Contributor), Mechin, N. (Contributor), Van Rijn, H. (Contributor), Marigold, D. C. (Contributor), Nuijten, M. B. (Contributor), Nosek, B. A. (Contributor), Hung, C.O.-Y. (Contributor), Brandt, M. J. (Contributor), Frank, M. C. (Contributor), Munafo, M. (Contributor), Nilsonne, G. (Contributor), Kappes, H. B. (Contributor), Braswell, E. (Contributor), Seibel, L. (Contributor), Beer, J. (Contributor), Echeverría, A. V. (Contributor), Chartier, C. R. (Contributor), Kyc, M. M. (Contributor), Vuu, G. (Contributor), Pitts, M. (Contributor), Dorrough, A. (Contributor), Van Der Hulst, M. (Contributor), Thomae, M. (Contributor), Johnson, K. M. (Contributor), Sandstrom, G. M. (Contributor), Van't Veer, A. E. (Contributor), Kunkels, Y. K. (Contributor), Eboigbe, S. (Contributor), Johnson, L. G. (Contributor), Skorinko, J. L. M. (Contributor), Dore, R. A. (Contributor), Melinger, A. (Contributor), Moore, K. (Contributor), Van Den Bergh, D. (Contributor), Turchan, P. (Contributor), Kidwell, M. C. (Contributor), Jäkel, F. (Contributor), Zuni, K. (Contributor), Beyan, L. (Contributor), Lemm, K. (Contributor), Schmidt, K. (Contributor), Strohminger, N. (Contributor), Ricker, A. A. (Contributor), Westgate, E. C. (Contributor), Mainard, H. N. (Contributor), Levitan, C. A. (Contributor), Nicolas, G. (Contributor), Mehta, P. (Contributor), Rutchick, A. M. (Contributor), Giner-Sorolla, R. (Contributor), Dreber, A. (Contributor), Epskamp, S. (Contributor), Lane, K. A. (Contributor), Kirkhart, M. (Contributor), Christopherson, C. D. (Contributor), Cohoon, J. (Contributor), Hodsoll, J. (Contributor), Hartshorne, J. (Contributor), DeCoster, J. (Contributor), Forsell, E. (Contributor), Gorges, B. (Contributor), Fedor, A. (Contributor), Shaki, S. (Contributor), Goellner, L. (Contributor), Joy-Gaba, J. A. (Contributor), Stieger, S. (Contributor), Feather, J. (Contributor), Errington, T. M. (Contributor), Embley, J. (Contributor), Bowman, S. D. (Contributor), Ratliff, K. A. (Contributor), Welsh, A. (Contributor), Kuhlmann, T. (Contributor), Gampa, A. (Contributor), Irsik, V. C. (Contributor), Axt, J. (Contributor), Rigney, A. (Contributor), Krijnen, J. (Contributor), Cremata, E. (Contributor), Lin, L. (Contributor), Calhoun-Sauls, A. (Contributor), Van Bork, R. (Contributor), Cloud, M. D. (Contributor), Weerdmeester, J. (Contributor), Meixner, J. (Contributor), May, M. (Contributor), Vazquez, M. (Contributor), Goh, J. X. (Contributor), Heikensten, E. (Contributor), Gordon-McKeon, S. (Contributor), Lippold, M. (Contributor), Vianello, M. (Contributor), Kossakowski, J. J. (Contributor), Van Doorn, J. (Contributor), Dewitte, L. (Contributor), Santos, D. (Contributor), Van Dooren, R. (Contributor), Clay, R. (Contributor), Goldberg, R. (Contributor), Neijenhuijs, K. I. (Contributor), Saxe, R. (Contributor), Lee, K. J. (Contributor), Van De Ven, M. (Contributor), Kim, S. K. (Contributor), Lewis, M. (Contributor), Knežević, G. (Contributor), Snyder, J. S. (Contributor), Bosch, A. (Contributor), Kelso, K. (Contributor), Johannesson, M. (Contributor), Lai, C. K. (Contributor), Jahn, G. (Contributor), Rahal, R.-M. (Contributor), Sahin, O. (Contributor), Masicampo, E. J. (Contributor), Eggleston, C. (Contributor), Sullivan, G. B. (Contributor), Jonas, K. (Contributor), Wood, M. (Contributor), Lee, M. (Contributor), Le Bel, E. P. (Contributor), Forest, A. L. (Contributor), Henninger, F. (Contributor), Krause, R. W. (Contributor), Glöckner, A. (Contributor), Sonnleitner, C. (Contributor), Perugini, M. (Contributor), Lakens, D. (Contributor), Cleary, H. (Contributor), Bahník, Š. (Contributor), Valášek, M. (Contributor), Jekel, M. (Contributor), Cheung, F. (Contributor), Spies, J. R. (Contributor), Matacotta, J. (Contributor), Mathur, M. (Contributor), Martin, D. P. (Contributor), Brown, B. T. (Contributor), Cillessen, L. (Contributor), Easey, K. (Contributor), Humphries, D. J. (Contributor), Holubar, T. (Contributor), Hayes, T. (Contributor), Fiedler, S. (Contributor), Wright, E. (Contributor), Goss, J. (Contributor), Te Dorsthorst, A. (Contributor), Vanpaemel, W. (Contributor), Kolorz, F. M. (Contributor), Fuchs, H. (Contributor), Penton-Voak, I. S. (Contributor), Lazarević, L. B. (Contributor), Estel, V. (Contributor), Tuerlinckx, F. (Contributor), Spencer, N. (Contributor), Roebke, M. (Contributor), Renkewitz, F. (Contributor), Zeelenberg, M. (Contributor), Van Aert, R. (Contributor), Ostkamp, L. (Contributor), Gilbert, E. (Contributor), Callahan, S. P. (Contributor), Tio, P. (Contributor), Plessow, F. (Contributor), Brown, K. (Contributor), Johnston, W. J. (Contributor), Farach, F. J. (Contributor), Hasselman, F. (Contributor), Martinez, T. (Contributor), Traets, F. (Contributor), Field, J. G. (Contributor), Chagnon, E. (Contributor), Laique, A. (Contributor), Schlegelmilch, R. (Contributor), Selterman, D. F. (Contributor), Grange, J. A. (Contributor), Conn, M. (Contributor), Van Assen, M. (Contributor), Wu, S. (Contributor), Pernet, C. (Contributor), Goodbourn, P. T. (Contributor), Fernández-Castilla, B. (Contributor), Simpson, W. B. (Contributor), Dugas, M. (Contributor), Sinclair, H. C. (Contributor), Johnson, D. J. (Contributor), Graham, J. (Contributor), Miller, J. K. (Contributor), Den Bezemer, B. (Contributor), Wissink, J. (Contributor), Alvarez, L. D. C. (Contributor), Nervi, T. (Contributor), Barnett-Cowan, M. (Contributor), Vermue, M. (Contributor), Devitt, O. (Contributor), Luteijn, I. (Contributor), Müller, S. M. (Contributor), Miller, M. (Contributor), Hartgerink, C. (Contributor), Tsang, S. (Contributor), Loureiro, D. (Contributor), Chandler, J. (Contributor), Deserno, M. K. (Contributor), Woods, A. (Contributor), Galliani, E. M. (Contributor), Perna, O. (Contributor), Frazier, R. S. (Contributor), Crusius, J. (Contributor), Bell, R. (Contributor), Borsboom, D. (Contributor), Brüning, J. (Contributor), Brohmer, H. (Contributor), Slowik, A. (Contributor), MacKinnon, S. (Contributor), Pipitone, R. N. (Contributor), Baranski, E. (Contributor), Cordes, A. (Contributor), Gable, P. (Contributor), Verschoor, M. (Contributor), Flagan, T. (Contributor), Costantini, G. (Contributor), Reinhard, D. (Contributor), Binion, G. (Contributor), Pavel, M. (Contributor), Foster, J. D. (Contributor), Donohue, R. (Contributor), Tapia, M. (Contributor) & Osborne, C. (Contributor), SMU Research Data Repository (RDR), 1-Aug-2015

      DOI: 10.25440/smu.12062757.v1

      Dataset

    Cite this