Exploring the Predictive Value of Gut Microbiome Signatures for Therapy Intensification in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A 10-Year Follow-up Study

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) pose a significant challenge due to their diverse, often debilitating, and unpredictable clinical manifestations. The absence of prognostic tools to anticipate the future complications that require therapy intensification presents a substantial burden to patient private life and health. We aimed to explore whether the gut microbiome is a potential biomarker for future therapy intensification in a cohort of 90 IBD patients.

METHODS: We conducted whole-genome metagenomics sequencing on fecal samples from these patients, allowing us to profile the taxonomic and functional composition of their gut microbiomes. Additionally, we conducted a retrospective analysis of patients' electronic records over a period of 10 years following the sample collection and classified patients into (1) those requiring and (2) not requiring therapy intensification. Therapy intensification included medication escalation, intestinal resections, or a loss of response to a biological treatment. We applied gut microbiome diversity analysis, dissimilarity assessment, differential abundance analysis, and random forest modeling to establish associations between baseline microbiome profiles and future therapy intensification.

RESULTS: We identified 12 microbial species (eg, Roseburia hominis and Dialister invisus) and 16 functional pathways (eg, biosynthesis of L-citrulline and L-threonine) with significant correlations to future therapy intensifications. Random forest models using microbial species and pathways achieved areas under the curve of 0.75 and 0.72 for predicting therapy intensification.

CONCLUSIONS: The gut microbiome is a potential biomarker for therapy intensification in IBD patients and personalized management strategies. Further research should validate our findings in other cohorts to enhance the generalizability of these results.