Forecasting in Planning

P. Ike, Henk Voogd

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    Abstract

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forecasting methods is discussed at the end of the chapter. The problem of error propagation, and hence inaccuracies, in the results of forecasting methods is briefly introduced to emphasize their main significance as tools in support of reaching organizational goals.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationEnvironmental and Infrastructure Planning
    EditorsHenk Voogd, Gerard Linden
    Place of PublicationGroningen
    PublisherGeo Press
    Pages157 - 182
    Number of pages25
    ISBN (Print)90-71971-71-6
    Publication statusPublished - 2004

    Keywords

    • forecasting
    • planning
    • quantitative forecasting
    • multiple regression analysis
    • concrete and masonry sand
    • qualitative forecasting
    • delphi method
    • scenario approach
    • transit-oriented development
    • time series methods
    • least squares method
    • arima
    • causal forecasting
    • economics models
    • concrete sand
    • industrial sand
    • building investments
    • building production
    • level of significance
    • dematerialisation
    • durbin-watson
    • regression equation
    • partial correlation
    • regression coefficient
    • intercept
    • residual value
    • R-square
    • coefficient of determination
    • regression line
    • regression
    • t-statistic
    • standard error
    • correlation coefficient

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