Global Warming Regulates the Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution of Cupressus funebris Forests in China

Cupressus funebris forests grow relatively fast and have a strong natural regeneration ability, showing great potential in carbon sequestration. Global warming has already had a significant impact on its distribution pattern. This study used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and the distribution data of Cupressus funebris communities to explore the contraction and expansion of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris. The research results are as follows: The contemporary adaptive distribution area of Cupressus funebris is mainly located in the southern region of China, and the area of the adaptive distribution accounts for approximately 7.15% of the total land area. The main driving variables affecting the distribution of Cupressus funebris are annual precipitation, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, isothermality, temperature seasonality, carbonate content, and altitude. Among them, climate plays a dominant role in the distribution of this community. Under different carbon emission scenarios in the future, the adaptive distribution areas show an expansion trend, but most of the highly adaptive areas are shrinking and the changes are relatively significant. In the high emission pathway, the distribution area continues to expand in the north while gradually contracting in the southern regions. The community distribution shows a trend of migrating to higher latitudes and altitudes in northern regions, and there are significant non-linear characteristics in altitude migration under the scenario of intensified carbon emissions. This study provides theoretical guidance for the protection and management of Cupressus funebris forests and helps to improve the carbon sequestration capacity of the communities in the context of carbon neutrality.