Good intentions, limited action: When do farmers’ intentions to adopt sustainable farming practices turn into actual behaviour?

A vast body of literature has developed to predict farmers' pro-environmental attitudes, intentions, and behaviour to develop effective policy for supporting farmers' adoption of sustainable practices. This literature relies heavily on measures of intentions, self-reported behaviours, and cross-sectional approaches. Yet evidence from across the social and psychological sciences demonstrate a prevalent gap between intentions and actions, which is also observed among farmers, and that intentions do not necessarily predict actions. We examine the nature and prevalence of farmers' intention-action gap, whether predictors of intentions also predict actions, and which predictors can explain whether intentions turn into behaviour. To do so we use survey and objective behavioural data from Norwegian horticultural farmers to examine their intentions to adopt and actual adoption of cover crops, a sustainable farming practice that can offer both mitigation and adaptation benefits. We survey farmers before the 2023 growing season to measure their farming preferences, environmental attitudes and concerns, and their intentions to apply for a cover crops subsidy (i.e. their intention to adopt). We subsequently access records of farmers’ application for the cover crops subsidy at the end of the farming season, six months later, to measure their actual adoption of cover crops. In line with the intention-action gap we found that whereas 49% intended to apply for the cover crops subsidy, only 16% of our sample applied for the subsidy in 2023. Past use and knowledge of cover crops, perceived need for adaptation, being risk seeking in farming, and using advisory services predicted intentions, whereas only past use of cover crops predicted both intention and actual adoption. Moreover, only the strongest level of reported intentions had some value in predicting actual behaviour. Our results offer timely evidence of the intention-action gap in agricultural decision-making, the urgent need to address a widespread reliance on intentions as predictors of behaviour, and the importance of behavioural measures and longitudinal approaches to understand the intention-action gap.