Het mbo in de onderwijswedloop: Kan de ladder ooit een waaier worden?

The Dutch labor market has a dire shortage of skilled trades workers and this will only get worse in the years ahead. At the same time, relative participation in secondary vocational education has been declining for many years. An educational race has arisen in which everyone tries to reach a higher level of schooling to stay ahead of the rest. This is due to the coincidence of two developments: (1) education is increasingly the dominant route through which social and economic success is achieved, legitimized by a meritocratic ideology; (2) it is rational for individuals to obtain the highest possible diploma because this provides access to the best jobs in terms of income and status. The resulting phenomenon of a top-heavy educational ladder erodes the position of secondary vocational education and has major negative consequences for individuals and society. This has prompted Education Secretary Robbert Dijkgraaf to argue for a change from the current unidimensional ladder to an ‘educational fan’ with various horizontal and vertical options. The Ministry has proposed several measures for this purpose, but due to an insufficient problem analysis, the effectiveness of these measures is likely to be limited. In this contribution we explain why and argue that the desired change requires more fundamental changes in the educational system and the labor market.