House prices and fertility: Can the Dutch housing crisis explain the post-2010 fertility decline?

Fertility has declined in many rich societies after 2010. However, the factors that explain this fertility decline remain poorly understood. In particular, little is known about how changes on the housing market contributed to the fertility decline. This study examines the links between house prices and fertility in the Netherlands, a country where house prices have risen dramatically in the past decade. Regional (NUTS 3) data for the period 1995–2022 are analysed using within-between models. The results for the within-effect of house prices show that after 2010, fertility decreased (more) in regions where house prices increased (more), suggesting that the housing crisis in the Netherlands can explain a substantial part of the post-2010 fertility decline. Before 2010, however, increases in regional house prices were associated with small increases in fertility, showing that the direction of the within-effect of house prices depends on the time period that is studied. Finally, differences in house prices between regions are not consistently associated with fertility.