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Abstract

AIMS: Use of infliximab (IFX) has improved outcomes in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, a proportion of patients does not respond to IFX or loses response over time. Population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) modelling is a promising approach for IFX dose optimization, but with the increasing number of PopPK models in literature, model evaluation is essential. The aims of this study are: (i) to validate the predictive performance of existing IFX PopPK models using a cohort of children with IBD; and (ii) to perform a Bayesian estimation of the most suitable model to predict the next IFX concentrations.

METHODS: PubMed was searched for IFX PopPK models in children. Selected models were rebuilt and analysed using R. Model performance was assessed through goodness-of-fit-plots, residuals against time, prediction error and prediction-corrected visual predictive checks. The validation cohort consisted of 73 children with IBD who were treated with IFX in our centre between 2017 and 2023 (340 IFX measurements).

RESULTS: We identified 9 PopPK models. Model bias for individual predicted values ranged from -9.29% to 8.01% compared to bias for population predicted values. The model by Vande Casteele et al. demonstrated superior performance (individual predicted bias 2.13, population predicted bias -6.11); upon Bayesian estimation, it predicted induction trough levels with median error of 12.95% but had a median error of -69% predicting maintenance concentrations.

CONCLUSION: The model by Vande Casteele et al. displayed superior performance in initial evaluations but had a high error in estimating next IFX levels and can only be used in practice to predict induction levels.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2200-2214
Number of pages15
JournalBritish Journal of Clinical Pharmacology
Volume90
Issue number9
Early online date6-Jun-2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept-2024

Keywords

  • children
  • gastroenterology
  • IBD
  • infliximab
  • PopPK
  • TDM
  • tumour necrosis factor-α

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