Investigating classical χ2 test methods for high-precision calibration of radiocarbon measurements

Andrea Scifo*, Michael Dee

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Sudden annual rises in radiocarbon concentration have proven to be valuable assets for achieving exact-year calibration of radiocarbon measurements. These extremely precise calibrations have usually been obtained through the use of classical χ2 tests in conjunction with a local calibration curve of single-year resolution encompassing a rapid change in radiocarbon levels. As the latest Northern Hemisphere calibration curve, IntCal20, exhibits single-year resolution over the last 5000 years, in this study we investigate the possibility of performing calibration of radiocarbon dates using the classical χ2 test and achieving high-precision dating more extensively, examining scenarios without the aid of such abrupt changes in radiocarbon concentration. In order to perform a broad analysis, we simulated 171 sets of radiocarbon measurements over the last two millennia, with different set lengths and sample spacings, and tested the effectiveness of the χ2 test compared to the most commonly used Bayesian wiggle-matching technique for temporally ordered sequences of samples such as tree-rings sequences, the OxCal D_Sequence. The D_Sequence always produces a date range, albeit in certain cases very narrow; the χ2 test proves to be a viable alternative to Bayesian wiggle-matching, as it achieves calibrations of comparable precision, providing also a highest-likelihood estimate within the uncertainty range.

Original languageEnglish
JournalRadiocarbon
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 27-Mar-2025

Keywords

  • age estimations
  • Bayesian analysis
  • calibration
  • radiocarbon dating

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