Job Stability Trends, Lay-offs, and Transitions to Unemployment in West Germany

This paper examines the evolution of different aspects of job stability, notably the termination reasons and the transition states. We estimate Semi-Parametric Cox Hazard Models with competing risks for West Germany and find an increasing hazard of job ending that is driven by an increasing hazard of being laid off, primarily. One explanation found is that men with fixed-term contracts face increasing risks of being displaced. In accordance with the technological change hypothesis we also find that men with a high degree of non-routine interactive tasks face a declining risk of displacement.