Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

COVIDSurg Collaborative

doi:10.1093/bjs/znab183

Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

COVIDSurg Collaborative

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1274-1292
Number of pages	19
Journal	British Journal of Surgery
Volume	108
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/bjs/znab183
Publication status	Published - Nov-2021

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10.1093/bjs/znab183Licence: CC BY

Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2Final publisher's version, 490 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{6208ecf5bc524067ab3280dc384c2d8f,

title = "Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score",

abstract = "To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.",

author = "{COVIDSurg Collaborative} and Smith, {D. E.} and Kroon, {H. M.} and M. Janssen and Leite, {A. L. S.} and Kim, {N. J.} and B. Muller and A. Gatti and A. Dell and J. Martin and H. Yang and J. Moon and Wong, {E. G.} and S. Wong and S. Sharma and L. Luo and Liberman, {A. S.} and S. Schmid and S. Mohammadi and H. Pham and R. Munoz and S. Rey and H. Smith and Ali, {A. K.} and M. Hammad and Ahmed, {M. Y.} and {El Amrani}, M. and S. Wolf and A. Paul and Nguyen, {T. A.} and R. Smeets and J. Mall and C. Hirche and Kok, {S. Y.} and Islam, {A. A.} and A. Ahmed and R. Hussein and A. Hill and T. Farrell and Smith, {L. A.} and J. Smith and S. Martin and Thomas, {A. Z.} and Collins, {C. G.} and Walsh, {S. R.} and M. Serra and G. Gallo and L. Giannini and Mariani, {N. M.} and Lee, {K. J.} and Groen, {L. C.} and {De Graaff}, {M. R.} and {Van Eekeren}, R. and {Van der Burg}, {S. W.} and Harlaar, {N. J.} and Jonker, {F. H. W.} and D. Nellensteijn and Bensi, {E. A. B.} and M. Holscher and Kruijff, {S. H.} and {De Vries}, {J. P. P. M.} and Steinkamp, {P. J.} and Jonker, {P. K. C.} and {Van der Plas}, {W. Y.} and W. Bierman and Y. Janssen and J. Franken and Boerma, {E. G.} and Keulen, {M. H. F.} and E. Schipper and Hendriks, {E. R.} and M. Emous and M. Teunissen and Gerritsen, {S. L.} and D. Boerma and A. Groen and {van der Meij}, W. and Stevens, {C. T.} and A. Pronk and Bakker, {W. J.} and Vriens, {M. R.} and Dekker, {N. A. M.} and O. Williams and S. Khan and M. Arshad and K. Ahmed and A. Sultan and Ali, {H. B.} and M. Tariq and A. Aguilar and P. Santos and Lim, {J. A.} and F. Borges and Rodrigues, {S. C.} and R. Alves and A. Oliveira and M. Rodrigues and J. Cardoso and P. Santos and R. Singh and G. Kim and A. Alghamdi and W. Mulder and A. Martin and M. Assaf and E. Rubio and L. Martin and M. Hernandez-Garcia and A. Martin and {Rodriguez Fernandez}, M. and M. Saleh and G. Ercan and A. Kale and Guler, {S. A.} and A. Yildirim and F. Abbas and A. Saber and P. Sharma and R. Jones and Lee, {S. M.} and J. Frost and M. Jones and N. Sharma and A. Parente and J. Lambert and O. Williams and A. Williams and H. Chu and J. Hopkins and M. Chan and A. Hassan and G. Aresu and C. Smith and J. Hogan and N. Ahmadi and A. Singh and Tan, {X. S.} and W. Wang and M. Thomas and T. Richards and D. Mehta and C. Morris and A. Jones and Baig, {M. M. A. S.} and A. Brown and S. Williams and Ng, {C. E.} and K. Khan and R. Evans and C. Brennan and L. Ross and S. Smith and T. White and D. Fernando and A. Singh and M. Patel and H. Cao and F. Chen and Shrestha, {A. K.} and Rashid, {M. M.} and A. Brunt and A. Kaufmann and B. Singh and A. Mohammad and R. Jones and Baig, {M. M. A. S.} and Thomas, {A. Z.} and Tan, {J. R.} and A. Menon and C. Knowles and R. Rahman and J. Sanders and S. Anwar and C. Tan and X. Luo and M. Denning and M. Chand and S. Shaw and D. Jones and Brown, {B. C.} and A. Khan and A. Smith and Hadfield, {J. N.} and B. Smith and A. Taylor and B. Rai and C. Price and Smith, {L. A.} and J. Reid and Collins, {M. L.} and A. Qureishi and Brown, {S. R.} and H. Fu and S. Sinha and S. Shankar and C. Verberne and Williams, {M. A.} and D. Miller and B. Ho and R. Campbell and J. Khan and S. Stefan and A. Day and C. Gilbert and S. Mukherjee and K. George and D. Ding and J. Foster and Brown, {S. R.} and M. Lee and S. Saad and A. James and S. Chatterji and Y. Zhang and M. Ali and M. Jarvis and Khan, {M. T.} and Z. Li and E. Thomas and A. Patel and S. Patil and M. Michel and S. Ravindran and J. Carter and J. Olivier and R. Das and J. Richards and P. Joshi and L. MacDonald and D. Vervoort and J. Clark and J. Myers and J. Dunn and R. Verma and S. Horvath and A. Meagher and D. Chen and K. Huynh and H. Liu and L. Brown and A. Soliman and E. Hernandez and J. Engel and T. Liu and P. Park and A. Walters",

year = "2021",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1093/bjs/znab183",

language = "English",

volume = "108",

pages = "1274--1292",

journal = "British Journal of Surgery",

issn = "0007-1323",

publisher = "Wiley",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2

T2 - the COVIDSurg mortality score

AU - COVIDSurg Collaborative

AU - Smith, D. E.

AU - Kroon, H. M.

AU - Janssen, M.

AU - Leite, A. L. S.

AU - Kim, N. J.

AU - Muller, B.

AU - Gatti, A.

AU - Dell, A.

AU - Martin, J.

AU - Yang, H.

AU - Moon, J.

AU - Wong, E. G.

AU - Wong, S.

AU - Sharma, S.

AU - Luo, L.

AU - Liberman, A. S.

AU - Schmid, S.

AU - Mohammadi, S.

AU - Pham, H.

AU - Munoz, R.

AU - Rey, S.

AU - Smith, H.

AU - Ali, A. K.

AU - Hammad, M.

AU - Ahmed, M. Y.

AU - El Amrani, M.

AU - Wolf, S.

AU - Paul, A.

AU - Nguyen, T. A.

AU - Smeets, R.

AU - Mall, J.

AU - Hirche, C.

AU - Kok, S. Y.

AU - Islam, A. A.

AU - Ahmed, A.

AU - Hussein, R.

AU - Hill, A.

AU - Farrell, T.

AU - Smith, L. A.

AU - Smith, J.

AU - Martin, S.

AU - Thomas, A. Z.

AU - Collins, C. G.

AU - Walsh, S. R.

AU - Serra, M.

AU - Gallo, G.

AU - Giannini, L.

AU - Mariani, N. M.

AU - Lee, K. J.

AU - Groen, L. C.

AU - De Graaff, M. R.

AU - Van Eekeren, R.

AU - Van der Burg, S. W.

AU - Harlaar, N. J.

AU - Jonker, F. H. W.

AU - Nellensteijn, D.

AU - Bensi, E. A. B.

AU - Holscher, M.

AU - Kruijff, S. H.

AU - De Vries, J. P. P. M.

AU - Steinkamp, P. J.

AU - Jonker, P. K. C.

AU - Van der Plas, W. Y.

AU - Bierman, W.

AU - Janssen, Y.

AU - Franken, J.

AU - Boerma, E. G.

AU - Keulen, M. H. F.

AU - Schipper, E.

AU - Hendriks, E. R.

AU - Emous, M.

AU - Teunissen, M.

AU - Gerritsen, S. L.

AU - Boerma, D.

AU - Groen, A.

AU - van der Meij, W.

AU - Stevens, C. T.

AU - Pronk, A.

AU - Bakker, W. J.

AU - Vriens, M. R.

AU - Dekker, N. A. M.

AU - Williams, O.

AU - Khan, S.

AU - Arshad, M.

AU - Ahmed, K.

AU - Sultan, A.

AU - Ali, H. B.

AU - Tariq, M.

AU - Aguilar, A.

AU - Santos, P.

AU - Lim, J. A.

AU - Borges, F.

AU - Rodrigues, S. C.

AU - Alves, R.

AU - Oliveira, A.

AU - Rodrigues, M.

AU - Cardoso, J.

AU - Santos, P.

AU - Singh, R.

AU - Kim, G.

AU - Alghamdi, A.

AU - Mulder, W.

AU - Martin, A.

AU - Assaf, M.

AU - Rubio, E.

AU - Martin, L.

AU - Hernandez-Garcia, M.

AU - Martin, A.

AU - Rodriguez Fernandez, M.

AU - Saleh, M.

AU - Ercan, G.

AU - Kale, A.

AU - Guler, S. A.

AU - Yildirim, A.

AU - Abbas, F.

AU - Saber, A.

AU - Sharma, P.

AU - Jones, R.

AU - Lee, S. M.

AU - Frost, J.

AU - Jones, M.

AU - Sharma, N.

AU - Parente, A.

AU - Lambert, J.

AU - Williams, O.

AU - Williams, A.

AU - Chu, H.

AU - Hopkins, J.

AU - Chan, M.

AU - Hassan, A.

AU - Aresu, G.

AU - Smith, C.

AU - Hogan, J.

AU - Ahmadi, N.

AU - Singh, A.

AU - Tan, X. S.

AU - Wang, W.

AU - Thomas, M.

AU - Richards, T.

AU - Mehta, D.

AU - Morris, C.

AU - Jones, A.

AU - Baig, M. M. A. S.

AU - Brown, A.

AU - Williams, S.

AU - Ng, C. E.

AU - Khan, K.

AU - Evans, R.

AU - Brennan, C.

AU - Ross, L.

AU - Smith, S.

AU - White, T.

AU - Fernando, D.

AU - Singh, A.

AU - Patel, M.

AU - Cao, H.

AU - Chen, F.

AU - Shrestha, A. K.

AU - Rashid, M. M.

AU - Brunt, A.

AU - Kaufmann, A.

AU - Singh, B.

AU - Mohammad, A.

AU - Jones, R.

AU - Baig, M. M. A. S.

AU - Thomas, A. Z.

AU - Tan, J. R.

AU - Menon, A.

AU - Knowles, C.

AU - Rahman, R.

AU - Sanders, J.

AU - Anwar, S.

AU - Tan, C.

AU - Luo, X.

AU - Denning, M.

AU - Chand, M.

AU - Shaw, S.

AU - Jones, D.

AU - Brown, B. C.

AU - Khan, A.

AU - Smith, A.

AU - Hadfield, J. N.

AU - Smith, B.

AU - Taylor, A.

AU - Rai, B.

AU - Price, C.

AU - Smith, L. A.

AU - Reid, J.

AU - Collins, M. L.

AU - Qureishi, A.

AU - Brown, S. R.

AU - Fu, H.

AU - Sinha, S.

AU - Shankar, S.

AU - Verberne, C.

AU - Williams, M. A.

AU - Miller, D.

AU - Ho, B.

AU - Campbell, R.

AU - Khan, J.

AU - Stefan, S.

AU - Day, A.

AU - Gilbert, C.

AU - Mukherjee, S.

AU - George, K.

AU - Ding, D.

AU - Foster, J.

AU - Brown, S. R.

AU - Lee, M.

AU - Saad, S.

AU - James, A.

AU - Chatterji, S.

AU - Zhang, Y.

AU - Ali, M.

AU - Jarvis, M.

AU - Khan, M. T.

AU - Li, Z.

AU - Thomas, E.

AU - Patel, A.

AU - Patil, S.

AU - Michel, M.

AU - Ravindran, S.

AU - Carter, J.

AU - Olivier, J.

AU - Das, R.

AU - Richards, J.

AU - Joshi, P.

AU - MacDonald, L.

AU - Vervoort, D.

AU - Clark, J.

AU - Myers, J.

AU - Dunn, J.

AU - Verma, R.

AU - Horvath, S.

AU - Meagher, A.

AU - Chen, D.

AU - Huynh, K.

AU - Liu, H.

AU - Brown, L.

AU - Soliman, A.

AU - Hernandez, E.

AU - Engel, J.

AU - Liu, T.

AU - Park, P.

AU - Walters, A.

PY - 2021/11

Y1 - 2021/11

N2 - To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

AB - To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

U2 - 10.1093/bjs/znab183

DO - 10.1093/bjs/znab183

M3 - Article

VL - 108

SP - 1274

EP - 1292

JO - British Journal of Surgery

JF - British Journal of Surgery

SN - 0007-1323

IS - 11

ER -