Molecular Testing as Triage in Cervical Cancer Screening: Economic Evaluation Using Headroom Analysis

Background: Molecular triage testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV)-based cervical cancer screening can be used in self-sampling, potentially reducing unnecessary colposcopies and increasing attendance. However, its commercial value remains underexplored. This study used headroom analysis to estimate the maximum reimbursable price (MRP) at which molecular testing would be cost-effective for the triage of hrHPV-positive women, compared with cytology.

Methods: A validated microsimulation Markov model for the Dutch cervical cancer screening program evaluated three triage scenarios: (1) cytology (base scenario), (2) molecular testing in self-samples only (scenario I), and (3) molecular testing on self- and GP-collected samples (scenario II). Test sensitivity and specificity ranged from 65% to 95%, with a threshold of EUR 20,000 per life-year gained.

Results: In scenario I, MRPs ranged from EUR 244 (85% sensitivity, 75% specificity) to EUR 435 (95% sensitivity, 95% specificity). In scenario II, molecular testing was cost-effective across all parameters, with MRPs from EUR 162 (65% sensitivity, 65% specificity) to EUR 624 (95% sensitivity, 95% specificity). Increasing the sensitivity did not significantly affect life-years gained (due to the low mortality of cervical cancer in the Netherlands), but increased specificity did reduce the number of unnecessary colposcopies.

Conclusions: Enhancing the specificity of molecular triage testing will improve its commercial value by reducing colposcopy referrals without affecting the number of life-years gained.