Mortgages and Credit Cycle Divergence in Eurozone Economies

Anna Samarina, Lu Zhang, Dirk Bezemer

Research output: Working paperAcademic

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Abstract

The dynamics of household mortgage credit and loans to non-financial busi-
ness have diverged significantly in recent decades. In this paper we construct
and describe credit cycles for total bank credit, household mortgages and non-
financial business loans for 14 EMU economies over 1990–2013. We explore
the cross-country coherence of credit gaps measured by synchronicity of move-
ments and similarity of amplitudes, and analyze correlates of credit cycle coher-
ence. Two findings stand out. As household mortgage credit assumes a larger
share in total credit, credit cycle coherence across EMU economies decreases.
EMU membership is associated with convergence of business credit cycles but
divergence of household mortgage credit cycles. These findings survive a bat-
tery of sensitivity checks. We discuss implications for monetary policy.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationGroningen
PublisherUniversity of Groningen, SOM research school
Volume15021-GEM
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Publication series

NameSOM Research Reports
Volume15021-GEM

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