No one can predict the future: More than a semantic dispute

Carlos A. de Matos Fernandes, Marijn A. Keijzer

    Research output: Other contributionAcademic

    Abstract

    Models are pivotal to battle the current COVID-19 crisis. In their call to action, Squazzoni et al. (2020) convincingly put forward how social simulation researchers could and should respond in the short run by posing three challenges for the community among which is a COVID-19 prediction challenge. Although Squazzoni et al. (2020) stress the importance of transparent communication of model assumptions and conditions, we question the liberal use of the word ‘prediction’ for the outcomes of the broad arsenal of models used to mitigate the COVID-19 crisis by ours and other modelling communities. Four key arguments are provided that advocate using expectations derived from scenarios when explaining our models to a wider, possibly non-academic audience.
    Original languageEnglish
    TypeContribution to submission thread
    Media of outputhttps://rofasss.org (Review of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation)
    Publication statusPublished - 15-Apr-2020

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