Predicting Dropout in Special Forces Selection

Predicting who will and will not succeed in the commando training of the Dutch special forces is a difficult task, but one that could offer many benefits. Our research has shown that using personality traits and machine learning models can help predict dropout. We collected data from 275 recruits and found that a model called SIRUS works well for predicting dropout. We also found that physical and psychological data were both related to dropout. Using these results, it may be possible to prevent dropout by intervening early. The next goal is to test these results in practice to see how well these techniques work.