Predicting the peak growth velocity in the individual child: validation of a new growth model

Iris Busscher, Idsart Kingma, Rob de Bruin, Frits Hein Wapstra, Gijsvertus J. Verkerke, Albert G. Veldhuizen*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)


Predicting the peak growth velocity in an individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is essential or determining the prognosis of the disorder and timing of the (surgical) treatment. Until the present time, no accurate method has been found to predict the timing and magnitude of the pubertal growth spurt in the individual child. A mathematical model was developed in which the partial individual growth velocity curve was linked to the generic growth velocity curve. The generic curve was shifted and stretched or shrunk, both along the age axis and the height velocity axis. The individual age and magnitude of the PGV were obtained from the new predicted complete growth velocity curve. Predictions were made using 2, 1.5, 1 and 0.5 years of the available longitudinal data of the individual child, starting at different ages. The predicted values of 210 boys and 162 girls were compared to the child's own original values of the PGV. The individual differences were compared to differences obtained when using the generic growth velocity curve as a standard. Using 2 years of data as input for the model, all predictions of the age of the PGV in boys and girls were significantly better in comparison to using the generic values. Using only 0.5 years of data as input, the predictions with a starting age from 13 to 15.5 years in boys and from 9.5 to 14.5 years in girls were significantly better. Similar results were found for the predictions of the magnitude of the PGV. This model showed highly accurate results in predicting the individual age and magnitude of the PGV, which can be used in the treatment of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)71-76
Number of pages6
JournalEuropean Spine Journal
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan-2012


  • Peak growth velocity
  • Prediction
  • Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis
  • Modeling

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