TY - JOUR
T1 - Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe
T2 - population based study
AU - Morris, Joan K.
AU - Rankin, Judith
AU - Garne, Ester
AU - Loane, Maria
AU - Greenlees, Ruth
AU - Addor, Marie-Claude
AU - Arriola, Larraitz
AU - Barisic, Ingeborg
AU - Bergman, Jorieke E. H.
AU - Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda
AU - Dias, Carlos
AU - Draper, Elizabeth S.
AU - Gatt, Miriam
AU - Khoshnood, Babak
AU - Klungsoyr, Kari
AU - Kurinczuk, Jennifer J.
AU - Lynch, Catherine
AU - McDonnell, Robert
AU - Nelen, Vera
AU - Neville, Amanda J.
AU - O'Mahony, Mary T.
AU - Pierini, Anna
AU - Randrianaivo, Hanitra
AU - Rissmann, Anke
AU - Tucker, David
AU - Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine
AU - de Walle, Hermien E. K.
AU - Wellesley, Diana
AU - Wiesel, Awi
AU - Dolk, Helen
PY - 2016/9/13
Y1 - 2016/9/13
N2 - OBJECTIVESTo provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe, and evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies).DESIGNQuestionnaire and population based observational study.SETTING24 EUROCAT registries covering 570 000 births annually in 15 countries.PARTICIPANTSCases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESPrevalence of microcephaly (1 Jan 2003-31 Dec 2012) analysed with random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries.RESULTS16 registries responded to the questionnaire, of which 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 SD below the mean for sex, age, and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians, and one changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.96) per 10 000 births, with registries varying from 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) to 4.3 (3.6 to 5.0) per 10 000 (X-2= 338, df= 23, I-2=93%). Registries with a 3 SD cut off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10 000 (0.86 to 2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut off of 1.21 per 10 000 (0.21 to 2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in one year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (PCONCLUSIONSEUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly from the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. Because of the rarity of microcephaly and discrepant diagnostic criteria, however, the smaller increases expected in Europe would probably not be detected. Clear diagnostic criteria for microcephaly must be adopted across Europe.
AB - OBJECTIVESTo provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe, and evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies).DESIGNQuestionnaire and population based observational study.SETTING24 EUROCAT registries covering 570 000 births annually in 15 countries.PARTICIPANTSCases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESPrevalence of microcephaly (1 Jan 2003-31 Dec 2012) analysed with random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries.RESULTS16 registries responded to the questionnaire, of which 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 SD below the mean for sex, age, and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians, and one changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.96) per 10 000 births, with registries varying from 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) to 4.3 (3.6 to 5.0) per 10 000 (X-2= 338, df= 23, I-2=93%). Registries with a 3 SD cut off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10 000 (0.86 to 2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut off of 1.21 per 10 000 (0.21 to 2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in one year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (PCONCLUSIONSEUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly from the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. Because of the rarity of microcephaly and discrepant diagnostic criteria, however, the smaller increases expected in Europe would probably not be detected. Clear diagnostic criteria for microcephaly must be adopted across Europe.
KW - ZIKA VIRUS-INFECTION
KW - CONGENITAL-ANOMALIES
U2 - 10.1136/bmj.i4721
DO - 10.1136/bmj.i4721
M3 - Article
C2 - 27623840
VL - 354
JO - British Medical Journal
JF - British Medical Journal
SN - 0959-8138
M1 - 4721
ER -