Projecting future critical material demand and recycling from China's electric passenger vehicles considering vehicle segment heterogeneity

Critical factors like electric vehicle market penetration, battery chemistry, and battery capacity determine future critical material demand and recycling potential from electric vehicles. However, current studies largely ignored the heterogeneity among vehicle segments. This study introduces a vehicle-model-based big-data driven approach to unveil electric vehicle characteristics at fleet-wide and vehicle-segment levels. Further, a bottom-up model was built to project the battery material flow dynamics in 8 scenarios, identifying middle and large vehicle segments as primary contributors. In the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese by 2050 will reach 182, 447, 61, and 44 kt, respectively, with recycled materials meeting 59 %, 58 %, 60 %, and 57 % of demand. The demand and recycling of critical materials have significant inherent uncertainty, with demand potentially fluctuating from one-quarter to twice the BAU level. Policies can greatly reduce primary resources for critical materials by guiding battery usage preferences and promoting recycling.