Ruin probabilities in an Erlang risk model with dependence structure based on an independent gamma-distributed time window

Rock Zhu*

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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    Abstract

    In this paper, we investigate an Erlang risk model wherein the premium rate and claim size distribution are dynamically adjusted based on the inter-arrival time and an independent random time window. The ruin probabilities within this model adhere to a system of fractional integro-differential equations. For a specific class of claim size distributions, this system can be further transformed into a fractional differential equation system. We provide explicit solutions for these fractional boundary problems and illustrate our findings with several numerical examples.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalEuropean Actuarial Journal
    Early online date4-Jun-2025
    DOIs
    Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 4-Jun-2025

    Keywords

    • Ruin probability
    • Dependence structure
    • Fractional integro-differential equation

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