Spatial Modeling of Leprosy Disease in East Java Province with Spatially Varying Regression Coefficients Models

Indonesia ranks third with the most leprosy cases globally. East Java is the province that has the highest leprosy cases. The Provincial Government socialized the East Java Leprosy Eradication Program, which targets a maximum of one leprosy case per 10,000 residents. We propose spatially varying regression coefficients models to evaluate the effects of risk factors on of leprosy cases in East Java, use Geographically Weighted Generalized Poisson Regression and Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) models. The best models GWNBR categorize municipalities into six groups based on variables that have a significant impact on leprosy cases. The percentage of households with access to adequate sanitation is a significant factor in determining leprosy cases in all municipalities in East Java. We can conclude that clean and healthy living behavior, health facilities, and health workers significantly affect the number of leprosy cases in East Java.