Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets

Laura Spierdijk*, Zaghum Umar

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

38 Citations (Scopus)
3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999-2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local currency) and an international investor who invests in both US and emerging-market assets (with returns in US dollars). We establish economically relevant short-run and long-run demand for stocks in several emerging market economies, for both domestic and international investors. From a welfare perspective, however, the myopic demand for emerging-market stocks is much more important than the hedging demand. Further international diversification and foreign currency hedging by the international investor do not alter this conclusion. Hence, for both domestic and international investors emerging-market stocks are mainly assets for the short run. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)217-238
Number of pages22
JournalJournal of International Money and Finance
Volume47
Early online date26-Jun-2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct-2014

Keywords

  • Emerging-market stocks
  • Predictability
  • Myopic demand
  • Intertemporal hedging demand
  • LIFETIME PORTFOLIO SELECTION
  • STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION
  • EXPECTED RETURNS
  • TEMPORAL BEHAVIOR
  • RISK-AVERSION
  • CONSUMPTION
  • MODEL
  • PREDICTABILITY
  • EQUITY
  • SUBSTITUTION

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