Taylor rules for the ECB using expectations data

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Abstract

We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)473-488
Number of pages16
JournalScandinavian Journal of Economics
Volume110
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Keywords

  • Taylor rule
  • ECB
  • real-time data
  • policy inertia
  • serial correlation
  • MONETARY-POLICY RULES
  • AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES
  • EUROPEAN-CENTRAL-BANK
  • INTEREST-RATES
  • UNIT-ROOT
  • AREA

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