Testing alternative hypotheses for the decline of cichlid fish in Lake Victoria using fish tooth time series from sediment cores

Lake Victoria is well known for its high diversity of endemic fish species and provides livelihoods for millions of people. The lake garnered widespread attention during the twentieth century as major environmental and ecological changes modified the fish community with the extinction of approximately 40% of endemic cichlid species by the 1980s. Suggested causal factors include anthropogenic eutrophication, fishing, and introduced non-native species but their relative importance remains unresolved, partly because monitoring data started in the 1970s when changes were already underway. Here, for the first time, we reconstruct two time series, covering the last approximately 200 years, of fish assemblage using fish teeth preserved in lake sediments. Two sediment cores from the Mwanza Gulf of Lake Victoria, were subsampled continuously at an intra-decadal resolution, and teeth were identified to major taxa: Cyprinoidea, Haplochromini, Mochokidae and Oreochromini. None of the fossils could be confidently assigned to non-native Nile perch. Our data show significant decreases in haplochromine and oreochromine cichlid fish abundances that began long before the arrival of Nile perch. Cyprinoids, on the other hand, have generally been increasing. Our study is the first to reconstruct a time series of any fish assemblage in Lake Victoria extending deeper back in time than the past 50 years, helping shed light on the processes underlying Lake Victoria's biodiversity loss.