The added value of daily diary data in 1- and 3-year prediction of psychopathology and psychotic experiences in individuals at risk for psychosis

This study aimed to assess whether adding information on psychological experiences derived from a daily diary to baseline cross-sectional data could improve short- (1-year) and long-term (3-years) prediction of psychopathology and positive psychotic experiences (PEs). We used 90-day daily diary data from 96 individuals in early subclinical risk stages for psychosis. Stepwise linear regression models were built for psychopathology and PEs at 1- and 3-years follow-up, adding: (1) baseline questionnaires, (2) the mean and variance of daily psychological experiences, and (3) individual symptom network density. We assessed whether similar results could be achieved with a subset of the data (7-14- and 30-days). The mean and variance of the diary improved model prediction of short- and long-term psychopathology and PEs, compared to prediction based on baseline questionnaires solely. Similar results were achieved with 7-14- and 30-day subsets. Symptom network density did not improve model prediction except for short-term prediction of PEs. Simple metrics, i.e., the mean and variance from 7 to 14 days of daily psychological experiences assessments, can improve short- and long-term prediction of both psychopathology and PEs in individuals in early subclinical stages for psychosis. Diary data could be a valuable addition to clinical risk prediction models for psychopathology development.