The First Cut is the Deepest? The Role of the Relationship Career for Union Formation

Using retrospective data from the survey Divorce in the Netherlands 1998, I examine the influence of the relationship career on chances of union formation. Frailty models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity show that previous union experiences reduce chances of union formation. Furthermore, formerly married persons are less likely to enter a new union than former cohabiters, and so are people who had short-lived prior unions or had children. Findings also indicate that the first cut is the deepest. Union formation probabilities drop substantially after the first union dissolves but remain constant after subsequent break-ups. Finally, the impact of prior union experiences on subsequent union formation is generally found to be stronger for women than men.