The influence of international climate policies on the deployment of CO₂ capture and storage at the national level

The deployment of large scale CO₂ Capture and Storage (CCS) may depend largely on the emissions price resulting from a greenhouse gas emission trading system. However, it is unknown whether such a trading system leads to a sufficient high CO₂ price and stable investment environment for CCS deployment. To gain more knowledge, we soft-linked WorldScan, an applied general equilibrium model for global policy analysis, with MARKAL-NL-UU, a techno-economic energy bottom-up model of the Dutch power generation sector and CO₂ intensive industry. Results from WorldScan show that CO ₂ prices in 2020 could vary between 20 €/tCO₂ in a GRAND COALITION scenario, in which all countries accept greenhouse gas targets from 2020, to 47 €/tCO₂ in an IMPASSE scenario, in which EU-27 continues its one-sided emission trading system without the possibility to use the Clean Development Mechanism. Results from MARKAL-NL-UU show that an emission trading system in combination with uncertainty does not advance the application of CCS in an early stage, the rates at which different CO₂ abatement technologies (including CCS) develop are less crucial for introduction of CCS than the CO₂ price development, and the combination of biomass (co-)firing and CCS seems an important option to realise deep CO₂ emission reductions.