The Next Crimea? Getting Russia’s Transnistria Policy Right

Adrian Rogstad*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)


Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March 2014 sparked so far unrealized international fears that the pro-Russian separatist republic of Transnistria in Moldova might be the next object of Russian territorial revisionism. This article argues that these fears were predicated on faulty assumptions about Russia’s interests and capacities in Moldova. It traces the development of Russian policy in the country from 1992 to 2015, and argues that Russia has primarily been interested in influence over the whole of Moldova rather than Transnistria per se; that Russian policy has been primarily reactive, responding to developments beyond its control; and that these developments frequently show that Russia’s power and ability to enforce its objectives are limited.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)49-64
Number of pages16
JournalProblems of Post-Communism
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Externally publishedYes

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