The Next Crimea? Getting Russia’s Transnistria Policy Right

Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March 2014 sparked so far unrealized international fears that the pro-Russian separatist republic of Transnistria in Moldova might be the next object of Russian territorial revisionism. This article argues that these fears were predicated on faulty assumptions about Russia’s interests and capacities in Moldova. It traces the development of Russian policy in the country from 1992 to 2015, and argues that Russia has primarily been interested in influence over the whole of Moldova rather than Transnistria per se; that Russian policy has been primarily reactive, responding to developments beyond its control; and that these developments frequently show that Russia’s power and ability to enforce its objectives are limited.