The propagation of financial turbulence: interdependence, spillovers, and direct and indirect effects

Zhongbo Jing, J. Paul Elhorst*, Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Jakob de Haan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)
288 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We investigate the propagation of financial turbulence via trade, capital flows, and distance channels in the pre-crisis and Global Financial Crisis periods by modeling spillover and interdependence effects, using spatial econometric techniques. Financial turbulence is proxied by the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans in a country. Spillover effects are defined as significant changes in the linkages between countries due to a shock, and interdependence effects as strong linkages among pairs of countries independent of shocks. Using annual data of 40 countries from 2003 to 2010, we find that interdependence and spillover effects should be jointly analyzed. Furthermore, our results suggest that the capital flows channel is more important than the other two channels in capturing propagation of financial turbulence. By deriving what is known in the spatial econometrics literature as direct and indirect effect estimates, we show that the marginal effects of macroeconomic variables (like GDP growth, inflation, and credit growth) on financial turbulence take different forms during a crisis than in tranquil periods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)169-192
Number of pages24
JournalEmpirical Economics
Volume55
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug-2018

Keywords

  • Financial turbulence
  • Interdependence
  • Spillover effects
  • Spatial panel econometrics
  • SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL
  • BANKING CRISES
  • CONTAGION
  • DISTURBANCES
  • ECONOMIES
  • NETWORK
  • TRADE

Cite this