Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973-2014

Kristiana Rozite, Dirk J. Bezemer*, Jan P. A. M. Jacobs

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

With this paper, we suggest a new approach to estimating financial cycles in terms of interactions of real-sector and financial-sector sentiments. We will apply this to U.S. financial indicators from 1973 to 2014. Based on Schumpeter’s and Minsky’s financial cycle concepts, we arrive at a selection of six indicators that capture finance and real sector linkages: the slope of the yield curve, a Purchasing Managers’ Index, real-estate price returns, the S&P stock price index, and leverage ratios of households (consumer spending) and non-financial corporations. We estimate lead-lag relations and apply principal component analysis to aligned series in order to construct factors. Our conclusion is that two factors, capturing corporate and consumer sentiments, account for over 60% of the cumulative variance in our data. Corporate optimism peaks before crisis episodes, while household/consumer sentiment is more persistent and follows corporate sentiment with a lag.
Original languageEnglish
Article number101023
Number of pages17
JournalNorth American Journal of Economics and Finance
Volume50
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov-2019

Keywords

  • Cycles
  • Corporate sentiment
  • Household sentiment
  • Principal components
  • Factor models
  • EURO AREA
  • DEBT
  • CREDIT
  • CRISIS
  • MODEL

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