Towards managing nonlinear regional development trajectories

Regions can become 'locked' into a spatial-economic development trajectory, thereby losing their capacity to adapt to spatial dynamics. This is in contrast to those regions that seem to be able to reinvent themselves by adapting to processes that drive spatial change, deviating from past development trajectories and giving rise to nonlinearity. This paper focuses on the influence that spatial planning has on stimulating as well as frustrating such nonlinear development. On the basis of an analysis of the development trajectory of the Wadden Sea Region, we clarify the relationship between spatial planning, lock-in situations, and the coming about of nonlinear development trajectories. For conceptual support on nonlinearity we turn to the complexity sciences. This assists us to reflect on planning strategies, and we discuss how spatial planning can contribute to managing emergent nonlinearity.