Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

Daniele Castellana*, Sven Baars, Fred W. Wubs, Henk A. Dijkstra

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.

Original languageEnglish
Article number20284
JournalScientific Reports
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1-Dec-2019

Keywords

  • MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION
  • MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA REGIME
  • STABILITY
  • VARIABILITY
  • AMOC

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