X Factors and Tipping Points in Eviction Cases: A Statistical Analysis of Eviction Litigation of the European Court of Human Rights

This study is the first to statistically analyse all eviction case law of the European Court of Human Rights up to 2024. It examines the impact of various case characteristics, such as the type of tenure, the reason for eviction and the involvement of vulnerable people, with a specific focus on the role of ownership and property rights. The study evaluates whether evicted homeowners have a higher success rate compared to non-owners, as they can invoke both Article 8 and Article 1 of Protocol No. 1. Additionally, it investigates whether landmark cases like McCann v the United Kingdom and F.J.M. v the United Kingdom serve as ‘tipping points’ that significantly altered the Court’s jurisprudence. The findings highlight the substantial influence of the McCann case on subsequent eviction rulings and reveal that being a tenant in the public rental sector significantly increases the likelihood of the Court finding a violation of Article 8.