TY - JOUR
T1 - A non-invasive risk score including skin autofluorescence predicts diabetes risk in the general population
AU - Boersma, Henderikus E.
AU - van der Klauw, Melanie M.
AU - Smit, Andries J.
AU - Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H.R.
N1 - Funding Information:
The Lifelines Biobank initiative is supported by subsidy from the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG the Netherlands), University Groningen and the Northern Provinces of the Netherlands. There was no funding for this manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12/16
Y1 - 2022/12/16
N2 - Increased skin autofluorescence (SAF) predicts the development of diabetes-related complications and cardiovascular disease. We assessed the performance of a simple model which includes SAF to identify individuals at high risk for undiagnosed and incident type 2 diabetes, in 58,377 participants in the Lifelines Cohort Study without known diabetes. Newly-diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting blood glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l and/or HbA1c ≥ 6.5% (≥ 48 mmol/mol) or self-reported diabetes at follow-up. We constructed predictive models based on age, body mass index (BMI), SAF, and parental history of diabetes, and compared to results with the concise FINDRISC model. At 2nd visit to Lifelines, 1113 (1.9%) participants were identified with undiagnosed diabetes and 1033 (1.8%) participants developed diabetes during follow-up. A model comprising age, BMI and SAF yielded an AUC of 0.783 and was non-inferior to the concise FINDRISC model, which had an AUC of 0.797 to predict new diabetes. At a score of 5.8, sensitivity was 78% and specificity of 66%. Model 2 which also incorporated parental diabetes history, had an AUC of 0.792, and a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 70% at a score of 6.5. Net reclassification index (NRI) did not improve significantly (NRI 1.43% (− 0.50–3.37 p = 0.15). The combination of an easy to perform SAF measurement with age and BMI is a good alternative screening tool suitable for medical and non-medical settings. Parental history of diabetes did not significantly improve model performance in this homogeneous cohort.
AB - Increased skin autofluorescence (SAF) predicts the development of diabetes-related complications and cardiovascular disease. We assessed the performance of a simple model which includes SAF to identify individuals at high risk for undiagnosed and incident type 2 diabetes, in 58,377 participants in the Lifelines Cohort Study without known diabetes. Newly-diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting blood glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l and/or HbA1c ≥ 6.5% (≥ 48 mmol/mol) or self-reported diabetes at follow-up. We constructed predictive models based on age, body mass index (BMI), SAF, and parental history of diabetes, and compared to results with the concise FINDRISC model. At 2nd visit to Lifelines, 1113 (1.9%) participants were identified with undiagnosed diabetes and 1033 (1.8%) participants developed diabetes during follow-up. A model comprising age, BMI and SAF yielded an AUC of 0.783 and was non-inferior to the concise FINDRISC model, which had an AUC of 0.797 to predict new diabetes. At a score of 5.8, sensitivity was 78% and specificity of 66%. Model 2 which also incorporated parental diabetes history, had an AUC of 0.792, and a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 70% at a score of 6.5. Net reclassification index (NRI) did not improve significantly (NRI 1.43% (− 0.50–3.37 p = 0.15). The combination of an easy to perform SAF measurement with age and BMI is a good alternative screening tool suitable for medical and non-medical settings. Parental history of diabetes did not significantly improve model performance in this homogeneous cohort.
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-022-26313-9
DO - 10.1038/s41598-022-26313-9
M3 - Article
C2 - 36526712
AN - SCOPUS:85144188820
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 12
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 21794
ER -