Accuracy of general practitioner's prognosis of the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety

RHS Van den Brink*, J Ormel, K Van der Meer, BG Tiemens, TWDP Van Os, A Smit, JA Jenner

*Bijbehorende auteur voor dit werk

OnderzoeksoutputAcademicpeer review

10 Citaten (Scopus)


Background A prognosis serves important functions for the management of common mental disorders in primary care.

Aims To establish the accuracy of the general practitioner's (GP) prognosis.

Method The agreement between GP prognosis and observed course was determined for 138 cases of ICD-10 depression and 65 of generalised anxiety disorder, identified among consecutive attenders of 18 GPs.

Results Modest agreement between GP prognosis and course was found, both for depression (kappa =0.21) and generalised anxiety (kappa =0.11). Better agreement (kappa =0.45 for depression, and kappa =0.33 for generalised anxiety) was observed between the course and predictions from a statistical model based on information potentially available to the GP at the time the prognosis was made. This model assesses attainable performance for GPs.

Conclusions General practitioners do a fair job in predicting the 1-year course of depression and generalised anxiety. Even so, their performance falls significantly short of attainable performance.

Declaration of interest No conflict of interest. Public funding detailed in Acknowledgements.

Originele taal-2English
Pagina's (van-tot)18 - 22
Aantal pagina's5
TijdschriftBritish Journal of Psychiatry
StatusPublished - jan-2001

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