An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: The example of Austria

W Lutz*, S Scherbov

*Bijbehorende auteur voor dit werk

    OnderzoeksoutputAcademicpeer review

    31 Citaten (Scopus)

    Samenvatting

    The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. But probabilistic approaches have not yet found their way into official population projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections: 1) it provides significant advantages to current practice,?) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity, 3) it is scientifically sound, and 4) it is applicable to all countries.

    In a recent Nature article (Lutz et al., 1997) this method was applied to 13 world regions. This paper discusses the applicability to national projections by directly taking the alternative assumptions defined by the Austrian Statistical Office. Sensitivity analyses that resolve some methodological questions about the approach are also presented.

    Originele taal-2English
    Pagina's (van-tot)1-17
    Aantal pagina's17
    TijdschriftEuropean journal of population-Revue europeenne de demographie
    Volume14
    Nummer van het tijdschrift1
    StatusPublished - mrt-1998

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