Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

Ingrid A. van de Leemput; Marieke Wichers; Angelique O. J. Cramer; Denny Borsboom; Francis Tuerlinckx; Peter Kuppens; Egbert H. van Nes; Wolfgang Viechtbauer; Erik J. Giltay; Steven H. Aggen; Catherine Derom; Nele Jacobs; Kenneth S. Kendler; Han L. J. van der Maas; Michael C. Neale; Frenk Peeters; Evert Thiery; Peter Zachar; Marten Scheffer

doi:10.1073/pnas.1312114110

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

Ingrid A. van de Leemput^*, Marieke Wichers, Angelique O. J. Cramer, Denny Borsboom, Francis Tuerlinckx, Peter Kuppens, Egbert H. van Nes, Wolfgang Viechtbauer, Erik J. Giltay, Steven H. Aggen, Catherine Derom, Nele Jacobs, Kenneth S. Kendler, Han L. J. van der Maas, Michael C. Neale, Frenk Peeters, Evert Thiery, Peter Zachar, Marten Scheffer

^*Corresponding author voor dit werk

Onderzoeksoutput › Academic › peer review

558 Citaten (Scopus)

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About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

Originele taal-2	English
Pagina's (van-tot)	87-92
Aantal pagina's	6
Tijdschrift	Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America
Volume	111
Nummer van het tijdschrift	1
DOI's	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110
Status	Published - 7-jan.-2014
Extern gepubliceerd	Ja

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Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset
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van de Leemput, I. A., Wichers, M., Cramer, A. O. J., Borsboom, D., Tuerlinckx, F., Kuppens, P., van Nes, E. H., Viechtbauer, W., Giltay, E. J., Aggen, S. H., Derom, C., Jacobs, N., Kendler, K. S., van der Maas, H. L. J., Neale, M. C., Peeters, F., Thiery, E., Zachar, P., & Scheffer, M. (2014). Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 111(1), 87-92. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110

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title = "Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression",

abstract = "About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.",

keywords = "early warning signals, experience sampling method, critical transitions, positive feedback, POPULATION-BASED SAMPLE, DAILY-LIFE, PSYCHIATRIC-DISORDERS, CRITICAL TRANSITIONS, EMOTIONAL INERTIA, NEGATIVE AFFECT, TIPPING POINT, COMORBIDITY, SIGNALS, PSYCHOPATHOLOGY",

author = "{van de Leemput}, {Ingrid A.} and Marieke Wichers and Cramer, {Angelique O. J.} and Denny Borsboom and Francis Tuerlinckx and Peter Kuppens and {van Nes}, {Egbert H.} and Wolfgang Viechtbauer and Giltay, {Erik J.} and Aggen, {Steven H.} and Catherine Derom and Nele Jacobs and Kendler, {Kenneth S.} and {van der Maas}, {Han L. J.} and Neale, {Michael C.} and Frenk Peeters and Evert Thiery and Peter Zachar and Marten Scheffer",

year = "2014",

month = jan,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1073/pnas.1312114110",

language = "English",

volume = "111",

pages = "87--92",

journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America",

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van de Leemput, IA, Wichers, M, Cramer, AOJ, Borsboom, D, Tuerlinckx, F, Kuppens, P, van Nes, EH, Viechtbauer, W, Giltay, EJ, Aggen, SH, Derom, C, Jacobs, N, Kendler, KS, van der Maas, HLJ, Neale, MC, Peeters, F, Thiery, E, Zachar, P & Scheffer, M 2014, 'Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression', Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, vol. 111, nr. 1, blz. 87-92. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312114110

TY - JOUR

T1 - Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

AU - van de Leemput, Ingrid A.

AU - Wichers, Marieke

AU - Cramer, Angelique O. J.

AU - Borsboom, Denny

AU - Tuerlinckx, Francis

AU - Kuppens, Peter

AU - van Nes, Egbert H.

AU - Viechtbauer, Wolfgang

AU - Giltay, Erik J.

AU - Aggen, Steven H.

AU - Derom, Catherine

AU - Jacobs, Nele

AU - Kendler, Kenneth S.

AU - van der Maas, Han L. J.

AU - Neale, Michael C.

AU - Peeters, Frenk

AU - Thiery, Evert

AU - Zachar, Peter

AU - Scheffer, Marten

PY - 2014/1/7

Y1 - 2014/1/7

N2 - About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

AB - About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

KW - early warning signals

KW - experience sampling method

KW - critical transitions

KW - positive feedback

KW - POPULATION-BASED SAMPLE

KW - DAILY-LIFE

KW - PSYCHIATRIC-DISORDERS

KW - CRITICAL TRANSITIONS

KW - EMOTIONAL INERTIA

KW - NEGATIVE AFFECT

KW - TIPPING POINT

KW - COMORBIDITY

KW - SIGNALS

KW - PSYCHOPATHOLOGY

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1312114110

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1312114110

M3 - Article

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 111

SP - 87

EP - 92

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America

IS - 1

ER -

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

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