Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data

Tjeerd M. Boonman, Jan P. A. M. Jacobs*, Gerard H. Kuper, Alberto Romero

*Bijbehorende auteur voor dit werk

OnderzoeksoutputAcademicpeer review

5 Citaten (Scopus)
79 Downloads (Pure)

Samenvatting

This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems for currency crises in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that are available at the moment predictions are to be made. We investigate two types of commonly used early warning systems for currency crises: the signal approach and the logit model. We apply each EWS to a panel of fifteen emerging economies, distinguishing an estimation period 1991Q1-2010Q4 and a prediction period 2011Q1-2017Q4. We find that using indicator forecasts in the predictions worsens the ability of early warning systems to signal crises compared to the most recently available information.

Originele taal-2English
Pagina's (van-tot)813-835
Aantal pagina's23
TijdschriftOpen Economies Review
Volume30
Nummer van het tijdschrift4
DOI's
StatusPublished - sep-2019

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