Identification of possible δ14C anomalies since 14 ka BP: A computational intelligence approach

Andreas Neocleous*, George Azzopardi, Michael W. Dee

*Bijbehorende auteur voor dit werk

OnderzoeksoutputAcademicpeer review

1 Citaat (Scopus)
160 Downloads (Pure)

Samenvatting

Rapid increments in the concentration of the radiocarbon in the atmosphere (Delta C-14) have been identified in the years 774-775 CE and 993-994 CE (Miyake events) using annual measurements on known-age tree-rings. The level of cosmic radiation implied by such increases could cause the failure of satellite telecommunication systems, and thus, there is a need to model and predict them. In this work, we investigated several intelligent computational methods to identify similar events in the past. We apply state-of-the-art pattern matching techniques as well as feature representation, a procedure that typically is used in machine learning and classification. To validate our findings, we used as ground truth the two confirmed Miyake events, and several other dates that have been proposed in the literature. We show that some of the methods used in this study successfully identify most of the ground truth events (similar to 1% false positive rate at 75% true positive rate). Our results show that computational methods can be used to identify comparable patterns of interest and hence potentially uncover sudden increments of Delta C-14 in the past. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Originele taal-2English
Pagina's (van-tot)162-169
Aantal pagina's8
TijdschriftScience of the Total Environment
Volume663
DOI's
StatusPublished - 1-mei-2019

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